How to Survive 2024
A few simple New Year's Resolutions to keep you connected to the real world.
No-one needs another list of predictions for 2024. There’s little doubt that this year is going to be a watershed moment — and I will explain why in a sec — but to start the year off I thought I’d offer five simple New Years’s Resolutions to think about.
These resolutions are just about making time — and making the most of that time.
The Watershed
Okay, I know I said no-one needs another list of predictions but just to make sure we’re all on the same page … just quickly … why is 2024 going to be so significant?
There are three principal reasons, as follows:
The rise of AI
First, however sceptical you might have been about artificial intelligence up to this point, this year will demonstrate the real social and economic disruption that AI is generating.
The continuing confluence of different schools of engineering1 means that the capacity of AI will accelerate, not slow as some like to predict.
The impact of putting competent AI in everyone’s hands2, free at the point of use will rapidly change the behaviour of a few billon people…
… and as more AI-as-an-OEM3 products come to the market we will start to get a sense of the impact from AI powered solutions removing humans from the economy in ever greater numbers.
The threat of war
Geo-politics isn’t my area … but news is and one can’t help see that as we start a new year things are escalating fast.
At this point one has to assume that Russia played a part in triggering the brutal attacks in Israel on October 7 and whatever the truth there, it is using the US’ distraction and its new supply-line from North Korea to significantly increase its bombing of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, as Israel decimates the Gaza Strip and kettles its population into an ever-shrinking ghetto in the south, the fighting across the border into Syria and Lebanon rumbles on and the UK and US are now making significant threats to start bombing Yemen, bringing both countries into a wider theatre of war — and no doubt antagonising Iran to join in too. This, in turn, will cause the current sense of appeasement or apathy from the other key regional players to evaporate.
The biggest election year in history
As these incredibly complex conflicts escalate … and as the wide availability of generative AI strips the electorate of any sense of trust in the news media or even the truth … we are entering the biggest election year in history.
By the end of the year over 4 billion people will have gone to the polls — including national elections in both the United Kingdom and in the United States — as well as various national or local elections in India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan and Turkey. The EU member states will also select their new parliament this year.
As a Brit, I would imagine that our election outcome is pretty clear already … but I will not be amazed if things doing go the way we’re all expecting….
To be honest though my eyes are probably more firmly fixed on the US election where I don’t believe anything is certain. If Donald Trump does get re-elected as the US President then, quite apart from the likely damage it will cause to US democratic freedoms, it will have seismic reverberations from Ukraine to Israel to North Korea.
Did someone say climate change?
And as all of these big, obvious, newsworthy things rumble on we will probably continue to ignore the quietest elephant in the room: climate change.
Here’s a chart of annual global temperatures lest we forget what digging more coal, drilling more oil and burning more gas is doing to the planet we’re all squabbling over.
Resolving to be positive…
Whatever happens on the global scale its important to remember that none of us actually have the capacity to be anything but bystanders.
We don’t make policy, we don’t command armies, we can’t save our socio-economic construct from drowning in an ocean of crude oil.
Meanwhile modern society, driven by economics, now defines the personal life of a human as an opportunity to consume, rather than create — we are, after all all, just economic units — and we are losing ourself in the day-to-day grind.
So to that end here are 5 New Year’s Resolutions to help us stay positive, stay present and make the most of the brief flicker of time we each have here in this world. They are all simple, all low cost and all designed for a monthly cadence we can all stick to.
Make the Things.
Once a month, go out of your comfort zone to create something new that you’ve never created before. Perhaps start where you’re comfortable: cooking a whole meal, if you don’t often cook… or somewhere traditional: dusting off that old sewing machine or digging out some knitting needles.
It doesn’t have to be fancy or clever, it doesn’t have to be expensive … it has to be time-consuming enough to require your full attention and simple enough that you can achieve it without explanation. Don’t pick something that requires YouTube. Don’t try an learn a new skill — use a skill you already have (or learn in your own time).
Pick something that will allow you to be mindful of what you’re doing.
Personally I’m thinking: baking bread, making marmalade, digging a pond, growing vegetables and perhaps knitting a hat.
Go Screenless.
Once a month, go for a day without screens. Completely.
If there’s more than one of you in the household then you should all do this together, on the same day.
When I say “screenless” I mean it. No television, no computers, no games consoles and absolutely no phones.
Find your bank card so you don’t need your phone for payments. Take off your smart watch - if you don’t have another, ask strangers for the time.
If you need to make arrangements: make them in advance and stick to them.
Get rid of all the excuses.
Try not to cheat the opportunity by filling your day with something practical that will distract you from the possibility of being at a loose end. Embrace the risk of boredom and explore all the ways to engage in all those activities you never get round to because you have to reply to X or watch the latest episode of Y.
Remember: you need to be disconnected to become connected.
Adopt a Tree.
Once a month, go visit a tree. Not just any tree. Pick a specific tree.
You need to chose a tree that you have to make some effort to visit (so not one in your street or your garden). You will need to visit in all weathers — so choose one that is readily accessible.
When you visit, spend some time. If the weather is clement then take a picnic or a book. If the sun’s not shining then make more of the journey to and from the tree — take the long way round.
The aim is to spend some time being present in the environment you share with the tree — the wider landscape, the immediate vicinity, the other life about, the weather on the day, the changing seasons, the whole experience of that one tree throughout the year.
The sheer intention — especially on those wet and windy days — to be in nature, to be observant and to take stock of your place in the world … away from the carnage of any other normal day.
Mend the Things.
Once a month, try to fix something you have that’s been broken.
Things have become so cheap - and so hard to mend - that most of us have lost both the skill and inclination to mend anything. We just buy a new one. And no-one is encouraging us to do any differently. Mending things isn’t good for the economy.
Quite apart from the environmental advantages though, when you mend something it confers not only a sense of agency and achievement — it gives you a profoundly different sense of ownership of and connection to the thing.
I’m not suggesting that you study digital microelectronics and start fixing your old iPod Nano from 2005. When you break something simple … something you’d normally throw out … just set it aside, do some Googling if you need and then make the time to put it back together.
If you can, when you fix the thing, put a little personal touch to it. For instance, when we glue plates back together (we have a lot of cats, dogs and kids … all of whom break crockery constantly) we follow the Japanese art of Kintsugi and make something beautiful from the pieces. Where our farmhouse wicker seat chairs have been destroyed (see above re. cats!) I’m re-upholstering them which only takes some strapping, a bit of foam some offcuts of old material and a stapler. Where an old piece of furniture is damaged or doesn’t “fit” we often strip it back a repaint it in a completely different style — giving it a whole new lease of life.
The challenge here - as throughout this list - is making the time. The activity should not, in and of itself, be a challenge … otherwise you can’t be fully present.
Be Intentionally Kind.
Finally, once a month, do something unexpectedly kind for someone you barely know.
Like all of these things — it doesn’t have to be complicated, clever, elaborate or expensive. It just has to require you to stop whatever else you’re doing … think about someone you wouldn’t normally have time to think about … and do something that will make a small difference to their day.
Perhaps buy a box of chocolates for the people who work in a store you frequent, perhaps leave something nice out for the recycling team. When you pass a homeless person on the street — stop and give them your time and attention and if you can afford to do so, offer to get them a coffee or sandwich or whatever you can spare. It’s more about making the effort to do something for them than specifically what you’re doing.
If you think you don’t have time for this just stop and think how much time you waste.
2hrs a day spent watching TV or browsing Facebook is an entire month of time.
Most of us waste an inordinate amount of time consuming ultra-processed media we don’t really need … it makes our minds fat and unhealthy … and stops us from doing anything wholesome instead.
But none of these things should be too taxing, too expensive or too unrealistic for any of us do. They’re not meant to be complicated.
As I’m sure you can see: they’re all ways to improve our mindfulness, presence and awareness of each other and the world we all inhabit.
Life has always been pretty chaotic and fast-paced. The world has always been changing. But 2024 promises an uncommon amount of disruption: economically, socially, politically and geopolitically.
Our descent into becoming catatonic, consumerist units of someone else’s economics is eroding our connection to the real world and that descent is accelerating.
In the constant rat-race of life we should never forget to unwind.
Take care … and if you’ve read this far, please consider sharing this post with anyone you think might get some value from it themselves.
Researchers are increasingly cross-pollinating traditional machine learning techniques, LLMs and robotics to make massive leaps in scientific discovery, or robotic dexterity.
Google (and presumably Apple) will be putting on-device, personally-fine-tuned LLMs (large language models, akin to ChatGPT) on your devices this year - bringing the power of these models to billions of people; free at the point of use.
Better still, ignore all the lies about climate change and elect politicians who don't want the majority of us dead via Agenda 21.